Why Harvard has an H-Bomb Problem, but Stanford Does Not

I was having lunch with my friend Jeff the other day.

“You’re living like a homeless person,” he said. “Stanford must be so proud.”

I thought that was funny. And Stanford doesn’t care. The Stanford community is quite accepting of its lower-wage earners.

In fact, a Stanford student found pawing through a dumpster behind Trader Joe’s would be regarded with whimsy. We might assume she was a hipster or political progressive. But a Harvard graduate diving in the same dumpster would draw shock and disgust and bring great shame to his dynasty.

Life of Barak Hussein Obama

Harvard students are held to a completely different standard of judgment than kids from the west coast.

This is due to the preconceived notion that Harvard grads uniformly occupy prestigious positions in society. It is not entirely false. Over 30% of Harvard grads last year took jobs in finance or consulting. Another sizeable fraction went into business or law. These graduates are either making money right away or have fairly predictable paths to wealth.

Furthermore, 18.6% of current and former US presidents have Harvard degrees. Only Herbert Hoover went to Stanford, and you don’t even know who that is.

As an alum, mentioning Harvard is referred to as “Dropping the H-Bomb” because it results in one of two outcomes — If you are in fact successful by societal standards, then it’s an immodest display of superiority. But if you are not well on your way to the oval office or corner office at Goldman or JP Morgan, you’re dragging down the reputation of Harvard.

The purveyor of an H-Bomb is instantly deemed either a snob or a failure. When you take a conventional path, there are few allowances for deviation.

Stanford wants its graduates to be wildly successful too, of course. But the west coast culture acknowledges that the path to success is not always a straight shot to the moon, and it isn’t always socially upward.

The Original HP
The Original HP

Stanford’s biggest donor, Bill Hewlett, lived in a garage.

Stanford’s second-biggest donor, Bob King, was (and still is) a philanthropist who took foreign students into his home. He gave one of those poor foreigners some seed money to start a little company called Baidu.

Stanford’s third-biggest donor, Phil Knight, spent half a decade driving to high schools to sell shoes from the trunk of his car. He called those shoes Nike.

I still love Harvard, but if I end up panhandling the streets of San Francisco, I’ll be wearing my Stanford sweatshirt.

Knight Management Center (GSB)

UPS Deliveries as a Leading Market Indicator

UPS's Quarterly Earnings Rise 48 Percent

Other than this current year, UPS has historically been quite decent at predicting seasonal shipping volume. But is seasonal shipping volume good at predicting other things? Let’s find out.

Here we have UPS’s average US daily volume by quarter and the year-over-year change. Every year, during Q4, delivery numbers jump due to holiday shipping.

ups avg daily volume

The last data point for 2013 Q4 is made up by me — In a late-October press release, UPS predicted that daily volume would increase by 8% this year. The fact that package volume exceeded their shipping capacity over the holidays implies that the daily volume in fact increased by more than 8%. Let’s guess, I don’t know, 8.5%.

And now we have the UPS year-over-year percentage change overlaid with the S&P500 year-over-year percentage change. UPS quarterly data points are shown as x’s because the data are less frequent.

sp500 vs ups

The S&P500 is quite a broad index, however. Here we look at just the consumer discretionary sector, as indexed by SPDR in their ETF (XLY).

xly vs ups yoy

Does one track the other? I don’t know, but I need to get back to work before I get fired.

UPS will release 4th Quarter results on January 30, 2014.

Source: UPS Quarterly Results

Crowdsourced Delivery Solves the Traveling Salesman Problem in Constant Time

businessweek_ups

BusinessWeek asks: Can UPS Save Christmas?

Nope. A strong holiday shopping season caused UPS to exceed their network capacity, making #UPSfail one of the top trending hashtags on Christmas day. UPS has tough job this time of year, and it’s all orchestrated from an office in Louisville, KY.

Consider this: A traveling salesman needs to make five stops in a city. What is the shortest path to hit all five points?

A UPS driver needs to make over 200 stops in a city, every day. What is the shortest path to hit all 200 points?

The computation time to solve the first problem might be less than a second. The second problem takes that amount of time, raised to the 20th power. Now scale the solution for the 132 million packages UPS must deliver in the week before Christmas. This is the task faced by the UPS dispatch planning system.

Look at the label on your next UPS package. This tells you exactly where the package sat in the brown truck on the drive to your home.

UPS shipping label

A UPS driver has 9 seconds to remove a package from the truck. She has another 30 seconds to walk to your doorstep and knock on the door. If there’s no response, you get an infonotice. UPS drivers adhere to this strict schedule to match their deliveries and breaks to the traveling salesman solution generated by the dispatch planner.

The drivers are under immense pressure. A 5-minute delay in a single driver’s day, added up over the course of the year, translates to a $105 million annual loss for UPS.

ups infonotice

There’s a much simpler solution to all of this. With over 300 million passenger vehicles on the road and an average vehicle occupancy of 1.2 passengers, there already exists a self-assembled delivery network. What more, each driver has already optimized their own route.

This is tantamount to solving the traveling salesman problem with a distributed computing system versus a centralized machine. In effect, a solution is reached in constant time rather than exponential time. And as is the case with distributed systems, breakdowns are contained without resulting in an Epic Fail.

Crowdsourced delivery is becoming a reality on the west coast, thanks to Barnacle. Judging by the number of tweets claiming to renounce UPS and FedEx forever, it’s quite possible that next year, we won’t be asking if UPS can save Christmas. Christmas will be saved by the crowd.

Happy Holidays From Apple

The iPhone tells a story. It’s worth watching.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ImlmVqH_5HM

The Samsung Holiday ad also tells a story, but it goes something like Buy our crap and you will get cheap and meaningless hookups. I’ve heard that story before, and I like Apple’s better.

Prehistoric CEOs

Once upon a time, hunter-gatherers lived in small tribes of 20-50 humans. Life consisted of eating, mating, and doing things that would hopefully lead to eating and mating.

There was typically some sort of tribal chief, a big dude who got all the ladies and controlled all the food. Women and food were the primary forms of currency back then.

speared-mastodon-bone-early-americans-clovis-illustration_42340_600x450

Despite the chief’s potential ability to hoard everything for himself, he would be diplomatic about distributing resources to the rest of the tribe. Even if food was scarce, it was in the chief’s best interest to feed the other hunters first. After all, if the tribe starves to death, he’s screwed too.

The chief also knew better than to breed with all the women, because sooner or later the tribal children would start coming out retarded.

Just like in early-stage companies, the CEO gets paid last. And for the most part, the leader is on the ground hunting alongside everyone else, because they need all the help they can get to take down those mastodons.

Somewhere along the line, tribes and companies grew well beyond their prehistorically-optimized size of 20-50 members. The CEO had little incentive to feed the foot soldiers, because they were replaceable, and he couldn’t see them from his cushy corner office anyway.

Most humans today will opt to join a large soulless corporation because of the perceived safety it provides. Small tribes were fragile and could be quickly wiped out by disease, famine, or a neighboring tribe. But in times of famine, who eats first?

See Also:
Imperial Animal