Amazon, the World’s Biggest Startup

blodget-bezos

Amazon has had a rough year, with a series of product flops and major losses reported this past quarter. At yesterday’s Business Insider Ignition conference, Jeff Bezos explained his company’s two decades of unprofitability: “We’re still a startup.”

That’s right, 20 years after incorporation and 17 years after IPO, Amazon is still searching for product-market fit. Startups are high-growth and inherently risky; we can forgive Amazon’s billions of dollars of failures.

But as far as product-market fit goes, Jeff Bezos isn’t doing it right. Look, Jeff, as a seasoned startup veteran, I’ll walk you through the process.

It's a 99-cent phone. Find it at your nearest Dollar General.
It’s a 99-cent phone. Find it at your nearest Dollar General.

First, the Fire phone. Let’s think about your value prop here. It’s like an Android phone, except crappier in all respects. But it’s also a little bit cheaper. In fact, you recently cut the price to 99 cents. So the value prop is a ridiculously cheap phone.

Think about the target market. Even at 99 cents no one wants it, but you made the mistake of trying to sell this product to the masses. Any startup knows that you need to target a single vertical, find a group of early adopters who really need this product.

Who needs a 99-cent phone? Why, drug dealers with burner phones, of course! Great. Next you need to talk to customers, so go hit the streets of Compton and understand your real target users.

amazon-echo

You can repeat this exercise with last month’s Amazon Echo, a 9” doorstop iPhone that only runs Siri. Who needs this? Maybe people who can’t move their arms and legs to reach their real iPhones? So… quadriplegics? Or people who are so morbidly obese that they can’t see their pockets? Go talk to them.

Amazon Dash. It's an anal probe that hangs in your kitchen.
Amazon Dash. It’s an anal probe that hangs in your kitchen.

And Jeff, while I’m sure you can afford to lose billions on terrible products, your shareholders would appreciate it if you did an ounce of customer research before forging ahead with your next crappy device.

Uber Pretty Much Had an IPO

uber

Post-2012 IPOs are a scam. There is nothing enjoyable about being a public company. Between audited SEC filings, exchange regulations, and analysts in the peanut gallery, public offerings are all downside.

Emerging growth companies are dragged kicking and screaming into the public markets when their early investors finally want to cash out. And an institutional investor only wants to cash out if the emerging company isn’t showing much growth anymore.

Uber’s still growing, which means it’s cool to stay private. But it needs more investor classes to draw from, so it went straight to the retail investors. Okay, the retail investors are Goldman Sachs clients, which makes them the top 0.1% of retail investors, but still: this is the same investor class that would be subscribing to an Uber IPO.

Uber has made a general solicitation, it’s acquired retail investors — Uber has done everything but list on NASDAQ. According to JOBS Act requirements, Uber can have up to 2000 accredited shareholders of record. It could even have up to 500 non-accredited shareholders. But why would Uber want your pocket change when it can have the pocket change of Goldman Sachs clients?

I won’t speculate on when and whether Uber will file for IPO. Maybe someday growth will have steadied and better investment opportunities will have emerged for its existing shareholders. Maybe it will have been so many years that Benchmark and First Round step in and say, Listen, our LPs are long dead and their heirs really need to cash out to pay their estate tax.

And then there will be a road show where institutional clients get first dibs on the Uber IPO. And there will be much fanfare, and a huge pop, and all the investors to date will walk away with fistfuls of money.

And after that, after everyone else has cashed out, that’s when Uber sells its shares to you.

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Machines are Herd Animals Too

AAPL

At 9:50am today, someone sold a lot of Apple shares. Probably some fat-fingered intern at Morgan Stanley or something. That one big sell order pushed AAPL down by maybe 1%.

This drop set off a bunch of algorithmic traders. If a stock’s price is dropping like a rock, a reasonable strategy is to sell it quickly lest you get wiped out. That’s called a stop-loss order.

So some stop-loss orders kicked in, and as each stop-loss further pushed down the share price, it triggered other stop-losses, and AAPL was in freefall for about 30 seconds before NASDAQ’s circuit breaker stepped in at a price of $111.27.

After the pause, AAPL’s price quickly righted itself and went about business as usual. But during that one minute of trading activity, AAPL fell 5% and $767 million worth of trades executed, which is about 15 times the normal activity over the course of a whole day.

Machines are supposed to be more rational than humans. The problem is, they were designed by humans. And because many machines were designed to execute similar trading strategies, they end up exhibiting stupid herding behavior, just like humans.

The Difference Between Gambling and the Stock Market

An earlier post made it sound an awful lot like the options market is merely a gambling establishment. It is. When trying to decide whether or not something counts as gambling, ask if it’s a zero-sum game. That’s a pretty good way to tell.

Options are bets where a seller has to pay a buyer money if a specific event happens in the market. The amount of money in the system stays the same. By replacing the word bet with derivative contract, and by using the verb speculate instead of gamble, options traders operate under a special set of laws where gambling is legal.

What about the stock market? Is it a zero-sum game?

You and I each have $100. I buy one share of Virgin America (VA) at IPO for $23. I now have $77. I sell it to you for $33. I now have $110. You have $67 and one share of VA, which has a market price of $33. Your net worth, on paper, is $100. Our combined paper assets have increased by $10 even though the total cash in the economy stays the same.

Okay Richard Branson is not actually the CEO. I don't know who is.
Okay Richard Branson is not actually the CEO. I don’t know who is.

You speculate that Richard Branson will use the original $23 to invest in VA’s future productivity and create a more valuable company. If that happens, more wealth is created in the economy and everyone lives happily ever after.

If Branson instead spends that $23 on hookers and blow, then you just learned an important lesson about the illusory nature of unrealized market wealth.

denni-parkinson-nude-richard-branson-island-2050764615

Bitcoin and Liquidity

People aren’t spending their bitcoins. The big orange chunk shows Bitcoin holders who bought their bitcoins at the peak of the bubble last year, and are now presumably holding on because they don’t want to realize their losses.

bitcoin-age

Fewer than 5% of bitcoins turn over each day. For comparison, the daily foreign exchange turnover for the US Dollar is $4.6 trillion, and the total US Market Cap is $22T. That is what a liquid market looks like.

See Also:
Some guy on Reddit did an analysis of how frequently bitcoins turn over.