Some 2030 Predictions

(I know it’s already 17 days into your Gregorian new year, but I operate according to the Lunar calendar. Also I am lazy and slow.)

1. #PlantParenthood
Over the holidays, my neighbor spent $5000 on emergency surgery after her dog swallowed a TV remote. I don’t have a dog, but I get the impression it’s kinda like caring for a small child and a geriatric parent, compressed into a lifespan of ten years.

You know how people are delaying family formation because they can’t afford to have kids? They’ll get priced out of pets too. Capitalism tends to create a hedonic treadmill where society spends an increasing amount on discretionary items until everything reaches a level of unaffordability.

So, houseplants are taking off. You know, for those who can’t handle the responsibility of having a cat. There are lots of tech startups specializing in potted plants for childless urban professionals. Prediction: Pet ownership will decline, houseplants will rise to take their place. We’ll see a growing cottage industry of botanists acting as veterinarians for plants.

Check it out I sprouted an acorn! #plantparenthood

2. Distributed Corporate Despotism
Our Anti-Sinitic Pravda loves to tell scary stories about China’s surveillance state, but did you know that the US leads the world in surveillance cameras per capita?

Many police departments use facial recognition to identify suspects, but there’s been some pushback on that. The real mass surveillance will be that which we welcome into our homes. Even though San Francisco banned facial recognition for cops, millions of homeowners have installed Ring security cameras to catch porch pirates. By the way, Ring has a video-sharing agreement with 770 police departments across the country.

ATMs and grocery store self-checkout lanes also have AI-powered cameras. My brother works at a hospital that frequently admits patients with no insurance and no ID. Why not replace hospital check-in staff with a facial recognition camera?

Prediction: China’s autocracy has nothing on capitalism’s distributed despotism. If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face – forever.

3. Wildcat banking, but on the blockchain
I can’t read the phrase “sound money” without rolling my eyes and making mental fart noises. (…aand I probably just got blacklisted from Bitcoin conferences for the rest of eternity.)

We’re moving toward fractional reserve bitcoin banking whether we like it or not. The blockchain is supposed to be auditable and unforgeable, yet 95% of bitcoin transactions happen on or between exchanges. (That’s a made up stat, but probably close.)

Now we have a sidechain called Liquid, basically a federated bank where you can see how much Liquid Bitcoin is in circulation, but no longer verify that any given exchange has what it claims to have.

Prediction: People will continue to create peer-to-peer transactions on the blockchain, but that will eventually be as quaint as using cash. Way trendier to make a Liquid transaction through a Blockstream Green Wallet.

Anyway, fractional reserve banking is fine; it’s the bailouts that are bad.

Image Rehab

I get the feeling Bill Gates is running interference for a lot of Epstein associates right now. Here he is, the most wholesome and low-T nerd in the world. If a family man like Gates could get sucked into Jeffrey Epstein’s orbit, surely it’s plausible that all those other folks might have been hoodwinked as well?

Here are some book excerpts from way back when:

But [Bill Gates] didn’t have to worry about the feds. Neukom — with the help of Gates’ father — had gotten him out of quite a bit of hot water over the years. They’d take care of him. Neukom and Ballmer, one of his closest friends, knew about his “thing” for women.

The Microsoft File: The Secret Case Against Bill Gates, by Wendy Goldman Rohm, 1998.

Though Gates began dating [Melinda] French in 1988, he continued to play the field for awhile, especially when he was out of town on business, when he would frequently hit on female journalists who covered Microsoft and the company industry. His womanizing was well known, although not reported, because Gates and Microsoft spoon-fed stories to industry writers for such papers as the New York Times, and none of them wanted the flow of information to stop.

They also didn’t report on the wild bachelor parties that Microsoft’s boyish chairman would throw in his Seattle home, for which Gates would visit one of Seattle’s all-nude nightclubs and hire dancers to come to his home and swim naked with his friends in his indoor pool.

Overdrive: Bill Gates and the Race to Control Cyberspace, by James Wallace, 1997.

Ethnic Branding

Unsolicited tip for Chinese tech companies: If you want to play well in the US, stop giving yourselves such fobby names. Americans are very xenophobic, we don’t trust brands like Huawei and Zhongxing and Dahua.

In the 1980s, Japan ran into this same problem with its international auto companies. Honda, Toyota, Nissan – You just know these cars were not Made in the USA. Toyota created a new brand called Lexus, Nissan made Infiniti, and Honda went with Acura. Wholesome, American-sounding names. Today, Lexus and Acura command a premium over Toyota and Honda even though they’re the exact same cars.

Sony was originally called Tokyo Tsushin Kogyo — Way too intimidating. So they changed their name to Sony, a play on the word “sonny”, which was a term of endearment in 1950s America.

Instead of phonetic translations of Chinese words, take advantage of authority resemblance with names like Federal Telecom, or United Information Holdings, or General Freedom Ltd. “TikTok” is fine, we love misspellings. “ByteDance” sounds like a phrase you might find across a two-dollar t-shirt sold on Tung Choi Street. Or, flip open a children’s book and choose an innocuous animal name: Fox, Chimp, Rabbit, Frog. Or fruit: Apple and Orange are successful tech companies, how about Banana? Oh wait.

An Armed Populace is a Docile Populace

I’ve always been skeptical of the idea that an armed populace is the best defense against government tyranny. Don’t get me wrong, I live in an area with actual feral hogs — I totally get the rationale behind bearing arms for self-defense.

When seconds count, police are only 30-50 minutes away.

But stopping tyranny? The Confederate states had not just firearms but also state militias, and even they were subjugated by a government they no longer trusted.

Here’s an interesting piece about the implausibility of mass political violence in the US. Gun owners tend to be the most law-abiding citizens in the country. Quite often they see themselves as informal enforcers of the law (eg, Rooftop Koreans). Heck, the NRA is actively involved in training law enforcement personnel. If a real tyrant were to take power, the nation’s armed populace would probably line up to carry out the tyrant’s demands.

An actual revolt against tyranny can only come from a community with a healthy distrust towards authority. Something like Black Lives Matter. Somehow I don’t think the NRA will be forging a partnership with BLM anytime soon.

How to Resist Censorship with Bitcoin

This is an excerpt from a presentation I gave at the 2019 Magical Crypto Conference.

Some time ago, I was arguing with a nocoiner on the internet, and he brought up the usual FUD, with the Nazis and North Koreans and global warming. But then he said something that made me think.

He said, any defense of bitcoin is morally bankrupt.

And I thought, that’s exactly right. Bitcoin is completely devoid of morals.

Good. Because money shouldn’t have morals. We’re building a global currency, not roleplaying Model UN. And that’s everything that’s wrong with fiat money today.

Money has suffered from feature creep. Economists like to define money as filling three roles – store of value, medium of exchange, unit of account — but the function of money has changed over time. The US dollar hasn’t been a store of value for decades; in fact it’s designed to depreciate at 2% a year to encourage consumerism. And exchange is now mostly done on credit.

What we do have is the standard unit of account for international finance. If everyone’s using the dollar, we can weaponize it to coerce certain behavior. Advancing political objectives, is the dollar’s most important use case. Congressman Sherman gets it.

Mostly we do this by economically isolating a group of people we don’t like. This can be anything from embargoing a whole country to Governor Andrew Cuomo and his sanctions against the NRA. As a result, the NRA lost their insurance and banking services in New York.

Then there was Operation Chokepoint, a 5-year program where the Justice Department investigated banks for doing business with politically incorrect customers like gun dealers and payday lenders. An investigation isn’t the same thing as a ban, but by imposing extra requirements to serve these customers, it ends up having same effect.

Here in the US we have the 4th Amendment, which says the cops can’t come search your home without a warrant. It protects us from having cops randomly barge into our homes, but more importantly it limits the state’s power to regulate. Even if the government did want to overreach and make rules about what we do in the privacy of our homes, there’s no way to enforce those rules.

So we can invite some friends over for drinks and cigars and play a game of poker with real money. In theory that’s illegal. In practice, the cops can’t do anything about it unless I invite them in.

The government effectively has no say in the matter when it comes to peer-to-peer cash. Decentralization may not limit regulation, but it limits the enforceability of regulation.

A lot of the laws we have are self-enforcing. And by that I mean, most of us go through life without ever shoplifting or murdering anyone, and we manage to do this without cops on every street corner. We do this because there’s a societal consensus about what we shouldn’t do.

On the other end of the spectrum you have something like speed limits. Technically it’s illegal to speed, but everyone speeds and mostly no one gets caught. In fact if you stay below the speed limit you’re probably pissing off a lot of people behind you.

The government can’t put a throttle limiter in every car. So if a speed limit is unenforceable then a speed limit sign is basically fake news.

Same with money laundering. It’s the world’s third largest industry after oil and agriculture. This is exactly what happens when you have laws that are too dumb to enforce. The only thing you can do to stop it is make more rules that everyone will go on ignoring.

Our self-regulating ways started to change in the 80s and 90s. Banks began storing account information in IBM mainframes instead of filing cabinets. Not only do computers make it easier to report suspicious activity, but they make it really easy to create blacklists.

When the government realized it was losing the War on Drugs, they didn’t say, “Wow I guess this rule is too stupid to enforce,” like they did with Prohibition. They made FinCEN, which is basically a big data agency. FinCEN collects data from banks, credit bureaus, all the different law enforcement agencies.

If all our transactions go through regulated financial institutions, then it’s suddenly really easy to enforce stupid rules that no one would otherwise follow. And we can do it to anyone on the planet with an international bank account.

The end result is that there might as well be cops permanently stationed in your living room. Or an Amazon Echo, same thing.

If a third party service presents an easy way to enforce dumb rules, of course regulators are gonna take advantage of it. Regulators are lazy; that’s why they invented sanctions in the first place.

Even gold isn’t safe anymore. Well it’s safe if you hold your own gold, but this is why you don’t store your gold with the Bank of England. Venezuela kinda screwed itself with the whole socialism thing, but here they’re trying to fund imports to feed their citizens and the US lobbied the Bank of England to cut them off.

You can’t enforce sanctions if you can’t deputize the banks.

We already know to run our own node, be our own bank. Even if Coinbase meets your needs, decentralization gives us herd immunity. If no one uses Coinbase, then Coinbase can’t be used for law enforcement.

Same goes for privacy. Right now, most bank websites won’t let you log in if you connect through Tor. A few years ago FinCEN did some analysis on IP addresses logged in the suspicious activity reports filed by banks, and found that a lot of sketchy stuff came through Tor. Now anyone who uses Tor is treated like a criminal. Next they’ll be looking at VPNs.

If everyone speeds, no one gets busted just for speeding. If everyone uses privacy tools, then no one gets flagged as a criminal just for using privacy tools.

Blockchain analysis companies have gotten really good at tracing the provenance of Bitcoin through inputs and UTXOs, and convinced the Treasury Department that a good way to sanction Iranian hackers is to blacklist a couple of bitcoin addresses. The guy controlling these addresses already generated a new wallet and bragged about it to the New York Times, so even they know not to reuse addresses.

Bitcoin developers have come up with better ways to improve transaction privacy. CoinJoin combines multiple Bitcoin payments from multiple spenders into a single transaction. Another proposal is pay-to-endpoint (P2EP) where both the Sender and Receiver contribute inputs to a transaction. The goal is to break the ability to identify the sender and receiver of a transaction.

If enough people create transactions where senders can’t be identified from the inputs, then blockchain analysis tools will become like those old-school polygraph tests, where they generate so many false positives that they completely lose credibility and are regarded as junk science, no longer admissible in a court of law.

We can also learn from financial institutions. Over the last decade, banks have paid something like $20 billion in fines for sanctions violations. OFAC sanctions, they’re like ransomware for banks.

Most of these are international banks serving international customers. They don’t always appreciate it when we recruit them to further our foreign policy.

In Europe, banks set up a special purpose vehicle so European companies can transact with Iranian businesses without violating sanctions. A business in Paris might want to buy oil from Iran, and a pharmacy in Berlin might want to sell medicine to Iranians.

Instex is a clearinghouse that matches credits and debits for these businesses, they settle their payments locally, and specific cycles are formed so no money ever transfers across the border.

It looks a lot like Lightning. As a network, Lightning serves as a clearinghouse where payments are routed all around the world, but actual settlement only happens when two nodes close a channel on the blockchain. This map shows public nodes and channels, but there are tons of non-public nodes and channels and no one needs to know what happens in the clearinghouse.

We can create specific cycles in the Lightning network where we spend and stack sats and only rarely return to the main settlement layer.

Earlier this year we had LNtrustchain, which went all over the world to Iran, then Israel, and ended up in Venezuela. We have a map of the Lightning torch journey, but if participants hadn’t advertised themselves on Twitter, no one would have been able to trace the torch.

The goal is not to use Bitcoin to evade sanctions or break the law, cuz we should all be law-abiding citizens. The goal is to make it so that financial censorship is no longer a thing. If no one can be forced into economic isolation, then announcing sanctions will be about as silly as thinking you can stop people from playing poker in their living rooms.